India Smartphone Shipments Fall 15% In H2 2026

India's smartphone market is expected to experience a significant decline in the second half of 2026, with shipments projected to fall by over 15 percent. This decline is attributed to a sharp rise in memory chip prices, which has increased handset costs and made buyers more cautious.

According to a report by IDC, the full-year volumes are expected to be around 128-130 million units, down from 152 million units in 2025. This decline is also reflected in the second-quarter numbers, which show a 11.1 percent year-on-year drop in shipments to 33.2 million units.

The rise in memory prices has been significant, with prices increasing nearly fourfold since September 2025. This has resulted in a 15 percent increase in average smartphone prices by the end of the second quarter. As a result, affordability has become the market's biggest challenge for the remainder of the year.

The decline in shipments has had a significant impact on Chinese smartphone brands, which have traditionally depended on lower-priced devices to drive volumes. Brands such as iQOO, Realme, and vivo have seen significant declines in shipments, with iQOO's shipments dropping 61 percent in the June quarter.

The sub-100-dollar segment has been the worst affected, with shipments in this price band falling 74.3 percent in the June quarter. This has resulted in fewer launches and weaker channel support, making it difficult for brands to sustain profitability at this price point.

Despite the overall slowdown, consumers who continue to purchase appear to be moving toward higher price bands. The 400-600 dollar segment has grown 60.3 percent year-on-year, with its market share rising to 8.6 percent from 4.8 percent. This shift toward premium devices has helped Samsung and Apple hold their ground, with Samsung's shipments rising 0.4 percent and Apple's shipments growing 0.7 percent.

The decline in India's smartphone market is expected to have a significant impact on the industry, with brands needing to adapt to the changing market dynamics. The rise in memory prices and the resulting increase in handset costs have made buyers more cautious, and brands will need to find ways to balance affordability and profitability.

In conclusion, the decline in India's smartphone market is a significant development that is expected to have a lasting impact on the industry. With shipments projected to fall by over 15 percent in the second half of 2026, brands will need to adapt to the changing market dynamics and find ways to balance affordability and profitability.