IMD Predicts Below-Normal September Rainfall

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for September, the final month of the southwest monsoon season. This warning comes as strengthening El Niño conditions are expected to impact precipitation across the country.

According to IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, most parts of India are expected to receive deficit rainfall during the month. However, some areas in eastern, northeastern, and central India may receive normal or above-normal rainfall.

The weather agency has stated that moderate to strong El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and are expected to intensify in the coming months. These conditions could contribute to weaker monsoon activity during September.

The IMD defines rainfall between 94% and 90% of the long period average (LPA) as below normal, while precipitation below 90% of the benchmark is classified as deficient. The southwest monsoon season has already recorded a deficit of 13.8% against the benchmark after three months.

If the trend continues, overall rainfall during the June-September period could fall below 90% of the LPA, making 2026 the weakest monsoon season since 2009. Rainfall distribution has remained uneven during the season, with nearly 47% of districts receiving deficient to large deficient rainfall, while about 52% have recorded normal to excess precipitation.

Central India, the core monsoon region, has received near-normal rainfall with a deficit of only 3.8%. However, other regions have faced significant shortages, including northwest India with a 10.7% deficit, east and northeast India with a 25.7% shortfall, and the southern peninsula with a 24.2% deficit.

After a weak June with rainfall 36% below normal, July witnessed some recovery with precipitation 1% above the LPA. However, August again recorded a deficit of 16.3%, with most regions except central India receiving inadequate rainfall.

The IMD had earlier lowered its monsoon forecast for June-September to 90% of LPA and estimated an 84% probability of below-normal or deficient rainfall during the season.

The below-normal rainfall forecast for September has significant implications for India's agricultural sector and overall economy. The monsoon season plays a crucial role in determining the country's agricultural output, and a weak monsoon can lead to reduced crop yields and lower economic growth.

In conclusion, the IMD's forecast of below-normal rainfall for September is a cause for concern, and the country needs to be prepared for the potential consequences of a weak monsoon season.

The El Niño conditions are expected to prevail over the coming months, which may further exacerbate the situation. It is essential for the government and other stakeholders to take necessary measures to mitigate the impact of the weak monsoon on the agricultural sector and the overall economy.

Overall, the below-normal rainfall forecast for September is a significant development, and its implications need to be closely monitored and addressed.